1. On September 25th (Wednesday), before the U.S. stock market opened, the three major U.S. stock index futures fluctuated. As of press time, Dow futures rose by 0.08%, S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.01%, and Nasdaq futures fell by 0.19%.
2. The German DAX index fell by 0.18%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.40%, the French CAC 40 index fell by 0.21%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.24%.
3. WTI crude oil fell by 1.13%, reporting $70.75 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell by 0.93%, reporting $73.78 per barrel.
Market News
Bullish sentiment is rising within Goldman Sachs! There is a unanimous call for U.S. stocks to continue to rise after the election. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, stated that once the results of the U.S. presidential election are determined, the path for U.S. stocks to continue to rise is clear. He said that he expects the S&P 500 index to trade near 6000 points a year from now. This forecast implies that the S&P 500 index will rise by about 5% compared to Tuesday's closing position, and the index has accumulated a rise of about 20% so far this year. However, David Kostin also said that as the U.S. presidential election enters its final stage, investors may have to experience some market trends in the coming weeks. He said that historically, this is a period of rising volatility and falling stock prices. He said, "There is uncertainty around the election, so in the short term, this will be a source of some concerns."
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Goldman Sachs CFO "likes" the Fed's substantial rate cut: A soft landing for the U.S. economy is in sight. Goldman Sachs Chief Financial Officer Denis Coleman said on Tuesday that the Fed's move to cut interest rates by 50 basis points put the U.S. economy on a soft landing track. As Coleman made this statement, market participants questioned whether the Fed's substantial rate cut was timely enough to curb inflation without the economy falling into recession. Some analysts expressed concern about the outlook for the U.S. economy, warning that similar substantial rate cuts could not avoid the economic recession and global financial crisis at the beginning of the 21st century. The Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points last Wednesday, surprising some economists. This was the first time the Fed has cut rates so substantially since the early stage of the 2019 COVID-19 pandemic and the previous 2008 global financial crisis.
Where will the Fed go next? Traders join the "bet" on a rate cut in November. The debate around the expected magnitude of the Fed's rate cut in November is intensifying, as officials begin to consider the Fed's next move, traders increase their bets on futures related to the Fed's policy path. After the U.S. consumer confidence data released on Tuesday was weaker than expected, investors are more inclined to cut interest rates directly by another 50 basis points in the resolution on November 7. As a result, for the swap market, it has essentially become a coin toss between another substantial cut and a more standard 25 basis points. Swap traders currently expect the Fed to cut interest rates by a total of about 75 basis points in the remaining two cuts this year, with the second cut taking place on December 18, which means that one of the meetings will cut interest rates by 50 basis points.
OPEC is highly optimistic about long-term oil demand, while the IEA sings the opposite tune. OPEC expects oil demand to continue to grow before 2050. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has increased its optimistic expectations for demand, insisting that global oil demand will continue to grow by the middle of this century. OPEC said in its annual long-term outlook report that by 2050, global oil consumption is expected to increase by 17.9 million barrels per day, reaching 120.1 million barrels per day, which is an increase of about 18%. Compared to last year's report, this means that OPEC has further raised its expectations for oil demand over the next 20 years. At the beginning of September, Brent crude oil prices fell below $70 per barrel - the lowest level in 33 months - and the outlook for OPEC+, which is crucial for oil revenue, is also not optimistic. Earlier this month, OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, decided to postpone oil production increases by another two months to support oil prices, but so far to no avail.
Individual stock news
Meta Connect 2024 is coming. Meta's (META.US) two-day Meta Connect 2024 conference will be held from September 25th to 26th. The company is expected to announce its first AR glasses, as well as the latest developments in the field of artificial intelligence and the latest progress of Meta VR/AR headsets; disclose that it has signed agreements with well-known actors including Hollywood superstars Judi Dench, Kristen Bell, and John Cena, and the voices of these stars may be used for the company's Meta AI chatbot.Intel (INTC.US) Launches Next-Generation AI Chips Xeon 6 and Gaudi 3, Challenging NVIDIA's Dominance. Intel has officially launched the brand-new Xeon 6 processor and Gaudi 3 AI accelerator, both products aimed at enhancing the company's competitiveness in the fields of artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC), potentially challenging NVIDIA's leading position in this domain. Previously, at the Intel Vision 2024 conference in April, Intel introduced the Gaudi 3 accelerator for enterprise generative AI, and in June, the company showcased the Xeon 6 with P-cores. The Xeon 6 processor is equipped with performance cores (P-cores), capable of doubling the performance of AI visual processing, while the throughput of the Gaudi 3 accelerator has also increased by 20%. This means that these new products will be more adept at handling complex computational tasks.
Robotaxi on the Horizon + Optimistic Q3 Delivery Expectations, Is Tesla's (TSLA.US) "Upswing" Coming Again? Tesla's highly anticipated Robotaxi is set to make its debut in early October, coupled with the eagerly awaited third-quarter sales data, the stock price has been climbing steadily, rising nearly 2% on Tuesday after a 5% increase on Monday. In addition, institutions have recently expressed optimism in bullish reports about Q3 delivery data in the Chinese market, stating that it is expected to record the best quarterly performance in China's history. Tesla's stock has recently completed its second major turning point in 2024, with Monday's increase making its performance for the year relatively flat. Analysts say that Tesla's Robotaxi day may drive this upward trend. After several delays, Tesla will finally launch the Robotaxi on October 10th. Also in early October, the company will announce its third-quarter deliveries.
One Step Away from the Regulatory Threshold! Buffett Reduces His Stake in Bank of America (BAC.US) Again, Bringing His Ownership to 10.5%. "Oracle of Omaha" Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A.US) has sold another $863 million worth of Bank of America stocks, reducing its ownership to a level closer to the 10% regulatory threshold. According to a filing submitted by Berkshire Hathaway to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on September 24th, the company further reduced its stake in Bank of America stocks over three trading days ending on Tuesday, currently holding 10.5% of the shares in the second-largest U.S. bank. According to relevant regulations, if the ownership exceeds 10%, transactions must be disclosed within a few days; if the ownership is less than 10%, there is no need to disclose the transaction promptly, and it usually may take several weeks to disclose in each quarterly report.
Important Economic Data and Events Preview
Beijing Time 20:00: U.S. August Building Permits Month-on-Month Revision (%).
Beijing Time 22:00: U.S. August Seasonally Adjusted New Home Sales Annualized Total (in thousands).
Beijing Time 22:30: U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventories Change as of September 20 (in thousands of barrels).
The next day, Beijing Time 04:00: Federal Reserve Governor Kugler speaks on the economic outlook.
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